I’ve always been a generous person, so this week I decided to give back to the people. Last week, two of my picks pushed and I ended up finishing 2-1-2. I hate pushes and I hate ties. Ties are for YMCA youth leagues. This is gambling people, we don’t tie around here. So, in light of last week’s picks, I’m giving two bonus picks this week. I’m still up against Vegas on the year with a 10-8-2 record and a 55% win rate through four weeks of picks, and this week should widen the gap as I’ve got seven winners you can take to the bank.
Pick #1: Miami -6.5 Georgia Tech
I open up this week taking Miami and the points to beat Georgia Tech. Not only are they getting less than a touchdown at home, in their last five games at Sun Life Stadium, the Canes are 5-0. Miami took down a Florida team in week two whose defense ranks second in the nation, and Georgia Tech’s wins have come against Elon, Duke and North Carolina. Statistically, Miami is putting up more points per game and yards per game than the Yellow Jackets, while subsequently allowing fewer points per game and only eight more yards per game. Not saying it’s a blowout, but I’ll take Miami and a touchdown at home all day long.
Pick #2: Oregon -39 Colorado State
Normally I tend to stray away from betting the blowout spreads because of the any given Saturday theory, but Oregon is the exception. Through four shclackings, the Ducks have covered all four times, outscoring opponents 239-43. Ranking 2nd in all of college football, their offense is averaging 599.3 yards per game and 59.8 points per game. The last time these two played, Oregon embarrassed Colorado State 70-14, and a 43-point Oregon deficit decided the 2011 matchup. No doubt in my mind that Oregon blasts Colorado State in Boulder by at least 39.
Pick #3: Stanford -8 Washington
In a Pac-12 meeting of undefeateds, I’m taking Stanford to cover the spread and beat Washington by eight; I’ve got them beating the Huskies by ten. Now, Washington is 3-1 against the spread this year, but the one time they didn’t cover they were on the road. The game is at Stanford Stadium where the Cardinals haven’t lost a game since November 12th, 2011 against Oregon. Since then, Stanford has won eleven straight at home, and in their last consecutive Pac-12 wins, they are 7-3 against the spread. Avenging the 17-13 loss last year, I like Stanford by at least a field goal and a touchdown over Washington
Pick #4: LSU -7.5 Mississippi State
Vegas might be trying to trick me here but I’m rollin’ with the Tigers to beat the Dawgs by more than 7.5. Last week LSU disappointed me in a three-point loss to a very talented Georgia team, but they shouldn’t have a problem covering this week against a Mississippi State team whose only wins have been over Alcorn State and Troy. No, that’s not a fictitious school; Alcorn State really exists. Coming off a loss, LSU is 10-0 in the next week’s game and hasn’t lost consecutive games since 2008. I think LSU will beat State by ten, so I’ll take a 7.5 spread.
Pick #5: Arizona State -6.5 Notre Dame
If you’ve ever been to Vegas, you know you don’t walk away from a heater. Well, I’ve picked against Notre Dame three times year, and I’ve won on every one of them. Against the spread in five games, the Golden Domers are 0-4-1. Entering this week, Arizona State’s quarterback Taylor Kelly ranks 11th in the nation in passing yards with 1370, and he’s thrown for eleven touchdowns to only four interceptions. Their offense ranks 15th in total output, posting 505 yards per game. Let’s be honest, Notre Dame is absolutely a joke this year, and Arizona State is coming off a game where they hung 62 biggins. I’ll bet the house and sleep like a baby on Arizona State to win by at least a touchdown.
Bonus Pick: Georgia -11 Tennessee
I’ve picked against Georgia twice this year and they’ve burned me both times. Last week I was in attendance at Neyland Stadium to watch the Vols play South Alabama, and they looked terrible. I left at halftime and they were up, but before the end of the game the Jags had pulled to within seven points. I thought LSU was the second best team in the SEC but I misjudged the Bulldogs. They haven’t lost to the Vols since 2009, and their Aaron Murray-led offense is generating 554 yards per game. Even though Todd Gurley isn’t playing today, I still like Georgia by more than eleven.
Bonus Pick: Washington State -1.5 California
I said last week that games with three point spreads are toss-ups, but games with lines that are set at less than a field goal? Pick with caution. Essentially, Vegas is saying take your winner. My winner in this game is Washington State. Neither of these teams are very good, but Washington State’s USC win and close Auburn loss make me think they can beat Cal by more than two points, and at least a field goal. On paper, both teams are pretty unimpressive outside of Cal’s passing yards, so in a game like this, I rely on against the spread statistics and you know what the numbers say? Washington State is 4-1 and California is 0-4. LOLZ I’ve got Washington State.
